Explaining What The Federal Reserve Did In Plain English (January 28, 2009 Edition)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged today.  It remains within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC reiterated most of the key points from its December 2008 statement, including:

• The U.S. employment outlook continues to deteriorate


• Consumers and businesses continue to cut spending


• The housing sector is still showing weakness

In addition, the FOMC addressed the “extremely tight” credit conditions for U.S. households and business, even as it said some financial markets are showing signs of improvement. 

To the Fed, the latter is a precursor for the former.  For Americans needing new mortgages or other forms of credit, it may mean that getting approved gets easier sometime late this year.

Most importantly, the Fed’s press release again mentioned the policy-setting group’s intention to “employ all available tools” to promote economic growth.  This includes the open-market purchasing of mortgage-backed debt that has helped fuel the current Refi Boom. The Fed indicated a willingness to extend the program beyond the initial $500 billion, if necessary.

For each of the Fed’s interventions, though, there is a trade-off. 

Buying securities costs money and the Fed — literally — comes up with the cash by printing it.  The extra supplies devalue the U.S. dollar which, if left unchecked, can cause the Fed’s plan to backfire in the form of runaway money supply-led inflation.  The Fed is aware of this risk and is pledged to monitoring it closely.

Overall, mortgage rates worsened today after the Fed’s statement.

Source
Parsing the Fed Statement
The Wall Street Journal Online
January 28, 2009
http://online.wsj.com/internal/mdc/info-fedparse0928.html

Did We Just See The First 2 Signs Of A Housing Recovery?

Don’t let the plunging median sales price fool you — December’s Existing Home Sales data has home sellers smiling. 

Just one month after falling below the 5-million unit trend line, sales volume roared back by 300,000 homes in December, surprising housing analysts and making a case that this spring’s Buying Season could be a competitive one.

Falling home prices helped fuel home sales.  Nationally, the median sales price — the point at which half of all homes sold for more and half sold for less — was $175,400, down $32,000 from last year.

However, the most important part of December’s Existing Home Sales report isn’t making headlines. 

At December’s sales pace, it would now take 9.3 months to exhaust the existing home supply.  Last month it was 11.2 months.  This means that buyers are competing to purchase fewer homes which, in turn, puts upward pressure on home prices. 

This is Supply and Demand at its most basic definition.

Economists have long said that the keystone of housing’s recovery will be rebalancing in home supply.  Coupled with the all-time low in housing starts, December’s Existing Home Sales data signals future strength.

(Image courtesy: The New York Times)

Move-Up Homebuyers Face New Lending Challenges This Spring

When a homeowner sells his home and decides to buy a new one, there are 3 basic options for the residence — sell it, keep it, or rent it.

Unfortunately, no matter which path they choose, move-up homebuyers in need of a new conforming mortgage will find qualifying for a home loan to be more difficult this season than in the past. 

Mortgage guidelines are dramatically tighter for people “carrying two mortgages”.

Among the changes this spring’s buyers face:

Selling the primary residence
If you plan to close on your new home prior to the closing of your existing home — even if it’s only by a day – both payments must be listed as monthly debts on your mortgage application. This will disqualify the majority of homebuyers.

Converting your residence to a second home
If your current home has less than 30 percent equity in it, your mortgage application for the new home will not be approved unless you can show 6 months worth of mortgage payments + taxes + insurance in reserves for the current home and new home combined.

Converting your residence to an investment property
If your current home has less than 30 percent equity in it, any rental income derived from a tenant is disallowed on your mortgage application for the new home.  You must still count the mortgage payment + taxes + insurance as a monthly debt.

In other words, being a move-up buyer isn’t as simple as it used to be.  New lending rules make buying a new home an exercise in timing and financial planning.  And the rules are expected to get tougher, too.

Therefore, if you expect to be a move-up buyer in the next 12 months, consider moving up your timeframe or — at least — planning ahead for it. 

Understanding the new mortgage landscape and how they can influence your upcoming purchase may be the difference between getting approved for a home loan, and getting turned down.

An Interactive Chart For Home Values

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a popular measure of domestic home prices, released monthly. 

The index reports on the largest 20 U.S. markets, painting a broad picture of real estate values nationwide.

Despite the Case-Shiller Index’s two obvious flaws — (1) it only counts repeat sales on single-family residences, and (2) it only includes 20 major housing markets — the model makes it easier to identify broader real estate trends in our nation’s largest cities.

Data, though, is just data.  It often takes a good picture to bring it all home.  Enter The New York Times.

On its website, The Gray Lady has posted an interactive Case-Shiller graphic.  For each of the 20 cities studied, users can compare how home values rose versus the national composite throughout the early part of the decade, and how values have fallen since. 

Not surprisingly, of the 20 cities that showed stable growth pre-2006, nearly all are outperforming in the current real estate climate.